We all remember Bladerunner and its depiction of urban city life in a distant and barely fathomable 2019 (at least there was no covid), alien looking, dark and incomprehensibly wet with these bioengineered, organic creations who battle to find a permanent place whilst hiding amongst the ‘gen-pop’ of us humans.

Harrison Ford might not get up to high altitudes as much as he did in 1982 when he played Deckard (a keen skier who favours Jackson Hole), much as Ridley Scott would now surely have a different view of the future if you asked him to develop a screenplay for the 1968 original concept story ‘Do androids dream of electric sheep?’. But point a ‘futurescope’ towards the alps with the date set at a similar time gap and what comes into focus may be unlike most of us could expect. 

Imagine high ski resorts that you currently enjoy, but as they will look for your children or grandchildren over the next three decades. I would suggest that environmental change will play a large part in turning these already ‘luxury’ holiday destinations into playgrounds for only the truly elite, so much so that a disproportionate level of control over the pastime will be theirs alone. For as sure as glacial tops diminish year on year, the reduction in the winter window of skiable terrain will increase the demand and price of the few ‘snow sure’ resorts that remain. Already across the alps, where resorts sit below 1500 metres the sustainability of a shorter ski season has proved impossible and those resorts have closed shop.

Even under moderate warming 90% of the alpine glaciers will be gone by 2100, and most mid-elevation smaller ones will likely not survive beyond 2050. Combined with shorter seasons, variable snowfall and midwinter rain this will directly impact the viability of a ‘ski trip’ for casual visitors and families who only visit in consistent conditions. This is before we get to the topic of rising costs. 

So is it science fiction or science fact? 

Scientists already talk about alpine glacial reduction as being the clearest real-world indicator of climate change that exists currently and offer a very specific time window (2033-2041) for global peak glacial extinction. So as Rutger Hauer spoke wistfully about tears being lost in the rain like his own memories, we may too weep for the long forgotten ski trips once taken annually to far away destinations that no longer exist (other than as natural green spaces). 

Perhaps if global emissions can be drastically curtailed right now the broad trajectory, although clearly set, could be slowed. But how? 

As I mentioned earlier, many of the wealthiest visitors to resorts like ours in Val d’Isere are focussed on costly convenience and the sort of high impact/high cost holidays that have become quite normal over these past few decades. Travelling by plane from different continents in relatively small groups, then by private transport for the final part of the journey either by land or air, to spend a week or two being chauffeured multiple times a day (in party sizes often less than three) around a town that is a few kilometres across and has a free electric shuttle service. 

Of course, this level of consumerism will have to continue if the revenues are to match the demands placed on the area by the environmental impact, and there is the horrifying dilemma. Plus not many of these 200,000 Euros a week ‘time poor’ travellers will relish the concept of responsible travel options or carbon neutral skiing, and perhaps they’d argue neither would any of us had we paid the sorts of sums being asked for private chef, fully equipped chalets and VIP ‘all’ access treatment. Having said all of that, I hope they enjoy it while it lasts, as half of the ski areas in Europe will not exist by the time their grandchildren attempt to take their own families on similar trips (that’s just the ones already born). 

What then of the financial implications, well just as the CEO of the Tyrell Corporation was interested primarily in profit, so too the powers that command most of the profit from this current situation in 2025 will be forced to adapt their methods to suit a changing natural environment, or the multi-million dwellings still being erected may not seem as attractive to those buying them currently. Unless of course the sound of ‘lower impact’ yet largely ‘self propelled’ summer sports like road cycling, mountain biking and hiking scratch the itch that is left when ski tourism dies out. It’s doubtful given the reliance of those types on bubble lifts, personal chauffeured cars and the propensity for half days on the slopes before ‘apres’.

To be perfectly honest, many visitors travel thousands of miles to spend their days wandering about in their finery, lounging by the pool and waiting for the next extravagant meal, rather than skiing at all. It is this rather bizarre view that lends itself most to some science fiction fantasy scene I am sure most of us would even now consider alien. “People actually travel to ski resorts to do anything but ski, and spend tens of thousands to do what, take selfies?”. The short answer is yes. Of course you must take a bubble to Folie Douce or a Skidoo to the middle of the backcountry for that perfect shot. Fast forward 30 years and these practices, taking place in a deserted landscape only accessed by the few who haven’t been priced out of the endeavour may start to resemble the concept of hunting expeditions in the African wilderness.

Further commercial pressure will in future be placed on the developers, who in a bid to retain their long enjoyed profits will continue to target the very wealthy, as demand in the highest regions outweighs supply ten-fold and drives out everyone but the uber rich. Something that as a realtor and resident here I have witnessed in just one short decade, without the added impact of reduced snow or shorter winters. 

Ski tourism still contributes around 50 billion Euros to the region’s coffers in winter alone, so the impact and importance to the multiple country economies involved is massive. For example Austria’s income from the sector is 5% of its GDP. Typical luxury resorts bring in as much as 200,000,000 Euros each season, so ‘protect our profits’ rather than ‘protect our winters’ may be the moto for these local economies. 

Of course, the summer will always bring cycling tourism to the region. A much less impactful and smaller group of visitors than the tens of thousands who come in winter, but the same can’t be said for the massive influx of pleasure drivers who come in sports cars to hear the sound of a V8 bouncing off the mountains and through the tunnels of our high mountain roads. The celebrated Grand Tours too, as much as we adore them, cost the earth with their hundreds of support vehicles, helicopters for coverage and the thousands of fans who travel to witness the spectacle. There are locals (like me) who have a negligible impact if we cycle to various stages around our homes, but what percentage of the crowd are we? 

Regardless, winter tourism is what runs a machine like Val d’Isere, indeed the few lifts that do open for downhill mountain bikers over a brief two month period are only available as they were built and funded by skiers. 

So to the future vision I hinted at in the title of my blog. Whether high elevation luxury resorts can sustain a viable offering for a smaller number of dedicated, well-off visitors will remain to be seen. Whatever that revised product looks like will not really affect the timeframes or the way things look. As by mid century those resorts that do remain will have a greater dichotomy of inhabitants, mostly the wealthy few enjoying everything that is left to enjoy as if curated just for them, and just a reduced staff who are no longer given access (by gifted season passes) to the reduced ski areas, the close proximity housing (as business owners are priced out in favour of second home elites) or the apres pubs n clubs (as beverage prices and a general phasing out of these in favour of both Michelin star restaurants and VIP clubs which pervade). 

As someone who resides here all year and sells property to the most likely intended future market, I see some benefits to the vision in the paragraph above at least. Mainly as second home owners are low use residents and seasonaires an annoyance to everyone but themselves (honestly, who wants to be waited on or driven anywhere by a ‘gap year’ youngster who got home drunk at 4am, especially after paying top money?). I can also see much virtue in demolishing older and environmentally impactful buildings in favour of prettier and much more efficient homes that are used much less often by their owners. It is certainly preferable to the alarming practice of allowing costly ‘land reclamation’ by means of cutting tons of rock face away to make room for future buildings.This alone may have a tiny impact on the damage done to the area going forward.

I would caveat my statements of fact by adding that, for my own part I use a motor vehicle as little as once a month for essential journeys, otherwise walking, cycling or using the free shuttle as it is perfectly adequate. Added to this I might use the cabin lifts (that already exist) perhaps three or four times a year, preferring the smaller ‘carbon footprint’ I make by hiking up the mountain for my turns on a snowboard. 

The message then is clear – the alps might not be disappearing immediately, but the map for future generations is narrowing upward at an alarming rate. Only resorts enjoying very high altitude of up to 3500 metres are going to be properly skiable by 2050. I understand that this seems a long way away, but this writer once said that about 2019 when I watched Bladerunner for the first time in about 1986. For the timebeing please do what you can and ski local, create the smallest carbon footprint you can, future generations may thank you for it.

On that particular note, if visiting from the UK there is now a direct train option from Paddington to Bourg Saint Maurice, bringing the alps to you with relative comfort and lower environmental impact.

I’ll leave you with another line from my favourite character in the film that could also be a reference to whether ski culture has reached its zenith, before the inevitable decline. Environmentally speaking, we have already tipped the scales:

“The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long.”